The escalating conflict between India and Pakistan, two neighbors who have been rivals for decades, erupted in the early hours of Wednesday morning when New Delhi launched missiles across the border.

The question now, analysts say, is whether the two sides will claim victory as Pakistan asserts that it downed Indian jets and gauges the toll of India’s strikes.

The two nuclear powers will need to be able to claim a victory that allows them to save face and avoid a hot war, writes Michael Kugelman.